ABSTRACT

This paper reviews a growing body of theoretical and empirical research on Italian populism through a detailed examination of the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, M5S), focusing on its experience in municipal elections. Using a wide range of administrative and survey data, as well as theoretical modelling, the paper analyses the determinants of M5S success in municipal elections. The evidence shows that while the dual-ballot system initially favored M5S candidates, their time in municipal office was short-lived, as M5S incumbents were less likely to be re-elected than mayors from traditional parties. This electoral decline is linked not only to the loss of ideological ambiguity but also to weak administrative performance. The analysis further documents a lasting populist legacy in the form of reduced trust in democratic institutions following M5S local governance. Evidence from the COVID-19 period further shows that targeted redistributive policies reduced support for populist parties. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of institutional context in shaping populist success, the governance challenges faced by outsider movements, and the conditions under which populist support can be contained or reversed.

JEL codes: D72, D73, H70.
Keywords: Populism; Municipal elections; Five Star Movement; Electoral institutions
ISSN 2704-7407
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