ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of financial uncertainty shocks in the US and explores the influence of monetary policy. Using a nonlinear Vector Autoregressive model, incorporating short-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policy, we find that the reaction of the monetary policy is asymmetric across the business cycle. The state-dependent responses in consumption and investment significantly influence GDP fluctuations. A counterfactual analysis reveals that balance sheet-related monetary policy helps reduce both the duration and severity of the recessionary impacts caused by these shocks.

JEL codes: C50, E32, E52
Keywords: Uncertainty, Smooth Transition VAR, Nonlinearities, Monetary Policy.
ISSN 2704-7407
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